YAR’ADUA: Coup Fears Heighten:

The army imposes restrictions on its men, its top brass denies any plot for military intervention to resolve the nation’s constitutional crisis, triggered by the abandonment of the ship of state by its ailing leader since November last year. Yet, there is palpable fear that the rudderless state could seduce the military to return to politics

By Ademola Adegbamigbe

It’s a familiar scenario: the nation totters at the brink, the leadership fiddles, as it is unable to muscle a consensus to resolve an unwarranted political logjam. Many important decisions are put on hold. Several crises, political and economic, threaten the fabric of the nation. Such haunting scenario provided the basis for a military putsch in the past. It is the hallmark of Nigeria’s 11-year old democracy at the moment, as its leadership bickered over whether the bed-ridden President Umaru Yar’Adua, hibernating in a Saudi Hospital since 23 November, should have written a letter that would enable him transfer power to his deputy, Goodluck Jonathan. The non-submission of the letter, and the power vacuum it has created, have triggered fears of a possible military coup.

The fears of such consequence, though unspoken, have spurred a frenzy of concern about the nation’s fate, urging immediate action by those empowered by the constitution to do so. Two weeks ago, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and European leaders spoke about  ‘a period of uncertainty’ in Nigeria and urged the leadership to adhere to the constitution in resolving the issues around the president’s long absence. Their statement coincided with another bold statement by three of Nigeria’s former leaders, former chief justices and political leaders across party lines, urging Yar’Adua to cede power to his deputy in consonance with the constitution.  The usually conservative Arewa Consultative Forum endorsed the position of this group by asking for the cession of power to Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan.

Last week, media chiefs, fearful of the ‘gathering clouds in the land’ also asked Yar’Adua to do what many Nigerians have asked him to do: cede power to Jonathan, his deputy. The media chiefs even went further by asking the President to resign within seven days if he could not transfer power to his deputy.

‘‘If he fails to take these obvious constitutional steps to stabilise the polity and keep away undemocratic forces from the political space, the National Assembly should commence impeachment proceedings against the President for endangering the country,’’ said the statement signed by the publishers of The PUNCH, Vanguard, TheNEWS, TELL, Leadership and owners of the electronic media, AIT, DBN and MITV, among others.

The leaders of the National Assembly have not foreclosed impeachment of the President, but their reactions to his illness has been cautious, if not irresponsible, fuelling suspicions that they must have been bribed. The Federal Executive Council, the nation’s cabinet, also empowered by the constitution to pronounce on the President’s fitness to run the country, two weeks ago returned a clean bill. But last week, the cabinet appeared split on Yar’Adua. Ministers were said to be divided on what next step to take, since only members of the President’s kitchen cabinet could pronounce with certainty Yar’Adua’s health situation.

The political impasse is worrisome to many Nigerians. Alhaji Abubakar Dan Musa, former speaker of the Kaduna House of Assembly was equally petrified as Nigeria drifted last week. In an interview with TheNEWS, he said: “Under this situation, nobody can rule out anything. This is the truth. We don’t hope for either military takeover or spontaneous civil unrest, but then if those in authority do not care about the feelings of Nigerians, it then means that we would make true the words of former US president John F. Kennedy, who said ‘those who made peaceful change impossible, make violent change inevitable’. I hope those in authority will do the right thing to avoid plunging this country into avoidable crisis.”

Tanko Abubakar Yakassai, a former special assistant to former President Shehu Shagari advised Nigerians: “People have to be very careful with their utterances not to overheat the polity and create the opportunity for some crazy people in the military to take advantage.” Lai Mohammed, National Publicity Secretary of the Action Congress, AC, however, noted that we are doing things that 10 years ago “would have been a reason for military takeover”.

Will the army strike? It is a question political pundits with a sense of history contemplate with fear. Although, army authorities have debunked speculations of a brewing coup d’etat, many Nigerians are skeptical of such assurances, since the military is notorious for making deceptive statements.

Anxiety within the Military

During the launch of the Nigerian Army Forward Operational Base in Abuja on 25 January, the Chief of Defence Staff, Air Marshal Paul Dike and the Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Abdurrahman Dambazau, warned Nigerian military officers not to allow themselves to be dragged into politics. “I am compelled to remind everyone of the constitutional role of the Armed Forces, which is primarily anchored on the protection of Nigeria’s territorial integrity. Meddling in political issues does not complement our constitutional role in any way, shape or form,” Dike said.

He, therefore, warned all members of the Armed Forces to steer clear of politics, because, as he put it, theirs is a military that is mindful of its past, conscious of its present, and hopeful of the future. The Nigerian Armed Forces would, according to him, not depart from their chosen path of honour. He therefore urged the officers and men to remain focused and committed to the service of their fatherland and to always remind themselves that politics is better played by politicians.

In his words: “Also, I must not fail to stress that regardless of the imperfection of our political experiments, democracy remains the only acceptable form of governance. And as members of the Nigerian Armed Forces, we must defend it at all costs.”

If Dike skirted the subject the way a military top brass walks gingerly through a minefield, Dambazau was more direct. In his words: “We are aware of the attempt by some people to drag the Army, which has remained neutral but absolutely committed to the survival of our nascent democracy, into the political affairs of this country.”

He revealed that the Nigerian Army had, in recent times, noted with dismay some of the unnecessary, unwarranted and inflammatory comments, statements and utterances in some quarters capable of creating a sense of insecurity and ‘‘dragging us back to the dark days of the nation’s history”.

“We want to state categorically that, in the Nigerian Army, our religion is espirit de corps, while our tribe is the military profession and our training has placed us above primordial sentiments. The barracks is not a political battlefield and our soldiers are not tools to be used for creating disunity,” Dambazau reiterated. He maintained the Army’s commitment to its constitutional roles and to make democracy stronger.

The subsisting democratic environment in the country today, as he put it, gives the rank and file a lot of advantage in the pursuance of professionalism. He admonished them to remain loyal to constituted authorities and be wholly committed to their constitutional responsibilities, and be apolitical at all times.

Since these homilies were delivered by these two brass hats, the military has put in certain precautions to rein in ambitious officers. Junior and some retired military officers are now put under close watch by the armed forces high command. Senior officers now pay surprise visits to the homes of junior officers, a trend which is very unusual.

“Officers are now very cautious. Since the Chief of Army Staff alerted that politicians were wooing soldiers, which is a euphemism for military coup, interaction among officers after the close of work has dropped drastically. There is a general air of caution in the military and nobody wants to take chances,” a newspaper reported.

The military authorities have also reduced the operating hours of the different Mammy markets in its barracks and other formations to 6 p.m.

The recent steps by the military high command came at the head of earlier ones taken. Dambazau, at the December 2009 Chief of Army Staff Conference, gave an order that no commander should travel during the Christmas and New Year celebrations. He told them: “Stay with your troops and celebrate with them. The Nigerian Army is not unaware of recent remarks in the press literally calling for what they term military solution to the political affairs of the country. While taking cognisance of the current democratic dispensation that respects the freedom of speech, the Nigerian Army dissociates itself from such remarks, as we are collectively resolute in operating within the confines of our constitutional roles.”

Whatever political disputes that may exist in our society, like they exist in all human society, Dambazau counselled, they are best settled through constitutional means. “Please the military should be left out of this,” he maintained.

The Political Mines on Ground
The first major problem has been that when President Yar’Adua travelled for treatment to Saudi Arabia on 23 November 2009, he did not officially transmit a letter to the Senate to enable Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan to take charge as acting president. This would have been in line with Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution which reads: “Whenever the President transmits to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives a written declaration that he is proceeding on vacation or that he is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office… such functions shall be discharged by the Vice-President as acting President.”

The controversy festered till 22 January when Justice Dan Abutu of the Abuja High Court ordered the Federal Executive Council, FEC, to give a declaration within 14 days on “whether Yar’Adua is capable of discharging the functions of his office, having regard to his absence from the country since 23 November 2009″.  FEC acted to beat that deadline, when on 27 January, it gave Yar’Adua a clean bill of health. Mike Aondoakaa, the Attorney-General and Minister of Justice read out the position of the FEC: “That the President is not incapable of discharging the functions of his office. The medical treatment outside the country does not constitute incapacity to warrant or commence the process of removing the President from office…” Aondoakaa even claimed that what is contained in Section 145 of the constitution, a letter by the president, is discretionary.

In spite of Aondoakaa’s position, the Senate passed a resolution, asking the President to send the appropriate letter so that Jonathan could take charge. But the upper legislative chamber stopped short of setting a date for the President.

Jos and Niger Delta Crisis
In the absence of the President, an ethno-religious violence erupted in Jos, Plateau State capital 17 January. Over 300 people died. Although, Vice-President Jonathan ordered the troops to impose a regime of peace, some Nigerians questioned the basis of his power, since the constitution only empowers the president to do so.

Another cinder in the political landscape of Nigeria is the resumption of violence by Niger Delta militants. The vandalisation of the Shell Trans-Ramos pipeline on 30 January––the very day the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta called off its truce with the Federal Government––forced the Anglo-Dutch group to reduce its output by about 70,000 barrels of crude per day.  The fighters have promised an “all-out onslaught” on foreign oil companies in which “nothing will be spared”.

And when Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian, attempted to bomb a United States aircraft, the American government ranked the country among terrorist nations. The matter, according to observers, would have been better handled at inter-government level if Yar’Adua were to be around.

As concerns mounted about the political instability of Nigeria without a president, some Nigerians were of the view that the prevailing circumstance should not be latched on by the army for any take over.

Chris Anyanwu, Vice-Chairman, Senate Committee on Defence and the Army, expressed in an interview last week that the Nigerian military had fully accepted its place of total subordination to civil authority under democracy. “If anyone is trying to provoke something, the military will not go along. They fully understand that civil problems are best left to be sorted out by civilians,” she said.

Lagos-based lawyer and social crusader, Bamidele Aturu, also said last week that a coup is now “totally needless”, but he saw America’s comments about Nigeria in the light of recent developments in the country as wake-up call to steer the ship in the right direction. “The military can’t and shouldn’t even contemplate disrupting the system. It is needless to even think about it because they have been known over the decades to have caused more damage to the polity than civilians. In any case, any military action won’t be acceptable to Nigerians, and this is why I don’t share the sentiment,” he said.

Warnings by the International Community
The United States Council on Foreign Relations, CFR, after the Dambazzau homily, warned that military intervention might occur if the logjam was not resolved.

Established in 1921, CFR is an American non-profit and non-partisan membership organisation dedicated to improving the understanding of U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. It comprises former envoys, security personnel, former political office holders, businessmen and, according to its website, “women whose views influence White House decisions on foreign policies”.

On 30 December 2009, a former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, said: “Nigeria’s military, though much weakened, continues to regard itself as the ultimate custodian of the state…If the current crisis spins out of control, the military is likely to intervene, possibly with a nominal civilian head. It (the military) would justify itself by saying it would prepare for elections and deal with ‘extremism’ in the Niger Delta and in the North.”

However, to the  would-be-coupists in the Nigerian Army, it may be necessary to ponder over the warning of the new Chairperson of African Union and President of Malawi, Mr. Bingu Wa Mutharika. He said that AU would, from now, declare war on unconstitutional change of government in Africa. His words: “We must declare war on unconstitutional change of government on African soil and resolve to take strong necessary punitive action against all authors of coup d’etat and those that provide them the means to unseat duly elected governments.”

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