Zimbabwe sinks deeper into crisis, provoking serious interest from the international community, who want President Mugabe removed
By Bamidele Johnson
For a man whose struggle to become President of Zimbabwe is a decade-long, Morgan Tsvangirai’s decision to pull out of the race against President Robert Mugabe, only days before a presidential run-off, must have been the toughest of his career.
The former union boss and leader of Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, has suffered arrest and beatings at the hands of his rival, after winning the first round last March. His followers have been murdered, arrested and tortured. He was forced to seek refuge at the Dutch Embassy in Harare, out of fear he could be killed. Many wanted him to continue the fight until the run-off last Friday, but he concluded that remaining in the race would only lead to more bloodshed.
As Mugabe made clear in words and deeds over the past week, the outcome of the election was not in doubt. While a clear majority of Zimbabweans may be happy to see him out of office, there appears to be very little they can do to realise that wish, given the combined might of the Zanu-PF militia and the security forces. The electoral authorities are also yet to render a full account of the first round of voting. Mugabe once said the only way he would leave office “is in a coffin.” Realising that he is confronting a man who is ready to bring down whatever is left of Zimbabwe, Tsvangirai seems to figure that he could still evict Mugabe from office if he adopts different tactics. The battle has spilled across the country’s borders to the international community, in particular the 14-nation Southern African Development Community, SADC; the African Union and the United Nations. Tsvangirai’s withdrawal from the run-off convulsed the world, moving even the United Nations Security Council to issue its first condemnation of the violence in Zimbabwe. Ban Ki Moon, the UN Secretary-General, called for a postponement of the election because of violence and intimidation. “There has been too much violence, too much intimidation. A vote held in these conditions would lack all legitimacy,” he said.Last Wednesday, the ruling Africa National Congress, ANC, in South Africa hurled its harshest criticism to date, accusing the Mugabe regime of “riding roughshod over the hard-won democratic rights of the people.” For long, South Africa, and in particular President Thabo Mbeki, shielded Mugabe from outside pressure. Now, however, evidence abound that Zimbabwe is an embarrassment to African leaders and a burden on neighbouring countries, where millions of Zimbabweans have sought refuge from Mugabe’s militia gangs and decrepit economy.
SADC members such as Zambia, Tanzania, Angola and Botswana have broken ranks to criticise Mugabe’s regime and urged him to postpone last Friday’s election because of the recent violence and Tsvangirai’s withdrawal. The South African government said it sent one of its senior negotiators to discuss with Zimbabwean authorities. Also last week, former South African President, Nelson Mandela, wielding the moral authority of world’s most prominent statesman, expressed concern and sadness at the chaos engulfing Zimbabwe. He accused Mugabe of a “tragic failure of leadership.” Mugabe was also stripped of his honorary knighthood by the Queen of England, on the advice of the government. British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, told British companies not to “prop up” Mugabe’s regime. Already, an Anglo-American firm that was investing in a platinum mine project has said it was “reviewing all options surrounding the development.”
Mugabe, however, remained defiant. “The West can scream all it wants. Elections will go on. The MDC leader saw this wave of political hurricane coming his way. He is frightened of the people. Other people can say what they want but the elections are ours and we are a sovereign state,” Mugabe told his supporters in Harare.The aim of the anti-Mugabe forces will be to turn Zimbabwe into a pariah state. As a first move, the international community can refuse to recognise Mugabe when he is sworn in for another term as President. Sanctions can be increased against the leadership. If South Africa throws its full weight behind the effort, the Mugabe regime will be legless. Britain and America are likely to press for action from the United Nations Security Council, where even Zimbabwe’s old allies, such as China, may distance themselves from his regime.While political pressure grows from abroad, the unopposed re-election of Mugabe is likely to lead to the death of Zimbabwe’s gasping economy, one with the world’s highest inflation rate.
The combined political and economic forces squeezing the country should force Mugabe not to contemplate a return to the situation that existed before the first-round elections, which Tsvangirai and his MDC won.It is not now a question of whether Mugabe’s regime will collapse, but when. The worst possible outcome would be a descent into further conflict and the need for an international intervention force to restore order. Paddy Ashdown, former European Union High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, said: “The situation in Zimbabwe could deteriorate to a point where genocide could be a possible outcome–something that looks like (another) Rwanda.” In the event of that, international military action, with Britain playing a “delicate role” might be considered.
Oluseyi Said.
4 July 2008 15:40Mugabe or whatever your name his, you will surely fall bt fire,by thurnder, no matter how wicked you are, pls let us tell him that God giveth and taketh, so it is ok for you step down now that the ovation is high.